Spotted in: Interview with Phillip Swagel, Congressional Budget Office Director
Source: CNBC’s Squawk Box
Topic: Criticism of the CBO’s latest report and baseline assumptions
Quote:
“None of this is a surprise… This is just part of the process by which legislation is made.”
“The baseline that we use is set by statute… If members of Congress want a different baseline, we can do that.”
“There is a little bit of a strange thing being criticized for following the law.”
What This Frame Does
Does Phillip Swagel know he’s playing into normalcy bias?
Rather than treating the criticism as a challenge to credibility or institutional norms, Swagel reframes it as expected, procedural—even dull:
- This isn’t unusual—it’s how legislation works.
- The CBO isn’t making decisions—it’s following statute.
- Controversy is part of the job.
This framing invites the audience to remain calm and disengaged. It draws on a psychological tendency known as normalcy bias—the mental shortcut that leads people to assume things will continue as they always have, even when warning signs suggest otherwise.
Normalcy bias is the tendency for people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its potential impact, believing that things will continue to function normally—even in the face of disruption.
— Behavioral Scientist
While this bias is most often discussed in the context of disasters, the same psychological dynamic echoes through Swagel’s remarks. By anchoring his comments in law—“set by statute,” “following the law”—he strengthens the impression that this is not only normal, but institutionalized.
Then comes the line:
“There is a little bit of a strange thing being criticized for following the law.”
This line carries more weight because he has just told the audience what is normal and what is expected. It subtly introduces contrast—but without pushing too hard. His tone remains neutral. The line could have hit harder if he had focused on it more directly, but perhaps that wasn’t the goal. He may not have wanted to signal criticism—just mild confusion.
It’s a clever rhetorical move: normalize first, then plant a seed of doubt.